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THE SIGNAL

Mercuria is committing US$250 million to Exergy’s African power platform, but the unresolved question is more interesting than the headline amount: what part of the electricity value chain does a global commodity trader intend to monetise?

Exergy is not simply developing generation in Zambia. Its businesses span generation through Lunzua Power, transmission through Lusitu and trading through Kanona. It is also developing infrastructure intended to connect Zambia towards East African power markets. For a country pursuing substantially higher copper production, the constraint is therefore not only how much electricity exists, but whether dependable power can reach expanding mines and processing capacity.

South Africa is solving a similar physical problem with a different capital structure. The Olifants Management Model Programme combines sovereign borrowing, commercial debt, blended-finance capital and direct participation by mining and industrial users to build water infrastructure across the Bushveld. The mines do not own the infrastructure being financed, but part of their productive capacity depends on it.

Ethiopia and Djibouti shift the constraint from water and power to logistics. Their proposed US$660 million refined-products corridor with Dangote would move fuel through a 120 km pipeline rather than relying so heavily on tanker trucks. The project has been launched, but its ownership structure, financing, tariffs and throughput commitments remain undisclosed. Even the proposed storage capacity is not yet settled: official and reported figures do not reconcile.

Hamak sits at the opposite end of the capital cycle. It is selling Bitcoin to finance the first serious economic assessment of the 210,430-ounce Akoko gold resource in Ghana. There, the immediate question is not external infrastructure. It is whether the shallow oxide ounces can support a commercially viable mine.

The analogy has limits, but the capital discipline is the same. Mercuria is financing around industrial demand. Olifants is allocating infrastructure cost and risk among public and commercial users. Dangote is trying to change the economics of moving fuel into a landlocked market. Hamak is spending capital to establish whether there is an asset worth financing at all.

Yesterday’s Lobito electrification story pointed in the same direction. Extractive corridors are not simply deposits connected to railways and ports. They are systems of electricity, water, logistics, processing and mineral rights. Whichever component becomes the binding constraint can determine the value of everything else.

NEWS»

Mercuria’s US$250 million Exergy deal reaches beyond power generation

Mercuria and Exergy have signed a US$250 million financing agreement for generation and transmission projects across Southern and Eastern Africa, with Zambia at the centre of the platform.

The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals.

Capital will support projects through Lunzua Power Company, which develops generation, and Lusitu Transmission & Distribution Company. Exergy’s Kanona Power Company provides the trading layer, managing electricity positions across regional markets.

Exergy is also developing a transmission highway intended to connect Zambia towards East African power markets.

The company places that strategy within Zambia’s target of 10,000 MW of electricity supply by 2031 under the Grow Zambia agenda and links its regional ambitions to Mission 300, the World Bank and African Development Bank initiative targeting electricity access for 300 million Africans by 2030.

Why it matters

Zambia’s copper ambitions create two capital requirements.

The first is familiar: finance the mine, expansion or processing plant.

The second is increasingly inseparable from it: finance the electricity system required to operate those assets reliably.

Recent hydropower shortages have already demonstrated the cost of allowing productive capacity and dependable electricity supply to move at different speeds. Additional generation helps, but it does not solve the problem if transmission cannot move electricity to industrial demand.

Mercuria enters that system as a global commodity and energy trader rather than simply as an infrastructure lender.

Extractives Daily view

The US$250 million establishes scale. It does not yet reveal the economics of Mercuria’s position.

Pricing, tenor, security, drawdown conditions and any associated trading, transmission or offtake rights have not been disclosed. Nor do we know how much of the commitment is attached to construction-ready assets rather than Exergy’s wider pipeline.

Those details matter because Exergy spans three distinct layers of the same electricity market.

Generation earns from producing power. Transmission earns from moving it. Trading can monetise differences in location, timing, scarcity and surplus.

A megawatt available in one part of the system has limited productive value to a copper mine if the network cannot deliver it when required.

Mission 300 adds another layer, but should not be overstated. Exergy’s alignment with the initiative does not mean World Bank, AfDB or concessional finance has been secured. It does place the platform alongside a much larger multilateral effort to expand electricity access, private investment and regional interconnection.

If Exergy moves enough projects towards construction, DFI or blended co-financing becomes an obvious area to watch.

The strategic question is therefore not simply whether Mercuria has financed African power. It is whether the trader is positioning itself to capture part of the value created when Zambia’s mines require substantially more electricity, and whether its preferred position is in generation, the wires that move power, the market that trades it, or all three.

Ethiopia and Dangote put US$660 million behind a new fuel route

Ethiopia, Djibouti and Dangote are advancing a US$660 million petroleum-products project centred on a 120 km multiproduct pipeline between Damerjog in Djibouti and Dewele in Ethiopia.

The project involves Ethiopian Investment Holdings and Dangote Group and is intended to reduce Ethiopia’s dependence on long-distance road haulage for refined petroleum products.

An 18-month operating target has been reported.

One basic project specification still requires clarification. Reuters, citing a spokesperson for Ethiopia’s prime minister, reported approximately 375,000 cubic metres of storage at Damerjog and 800,000 cubic metres at Dewele, or 1.175 million cubic metres combined.

Ethiopian News Agency has published two different descriptions. One report says the project will have more than one million cubic metres of combined storage. A separate report carrying Aliko Dangote’s remarks says it will have 400 million litres, equivalent to 400,000 cubic metres.

Those figures do not reconcile and should not yet be treated as settled design specifications.

Why it matters

Ethiopia is landlocked and depends heavily on the Djibouti corridor for petroleum imports.

Replacing part of the tanker-truck chain with fixed infrastructure could reduce transport exposure and handling requirements while increasing strategic storage and supply resilience.

Dangote’s participation also pushes the group further into infrastructure governing how commodities reach markets.

Extractives Daily view

No supply agreement linking the pipeline to Dangote’s Nigerian refinery has been disclosed. That inference should not be made.

The stronger question is financial.

The project value is known, but the ownership split, debt package, tariffs and committed throughput are not. Those terms determine who carries utilisation risk and how much product must move through the pipeline for the capital invested to earn an adequate return.

The conflicting storage figures reinforce a more basic point. The project is sufficiently early that even some physical specifications remain unsettled in public reporting.

The next test is whether the 18-month timetable survives the transition from announcement to executed financing, engineering and construction documents.

South Africa layers sovereign and private capital into Bushveld water

The New Development Bank has approved a US$200 million sovereign loan to South Africa for Stage 1 of the Olifants Management Model Programme in Limpopo.

NDB identifies a further R6.555 billion of commercial borrowings and other funding sources for Stage 1.

Separately, Climate Fund Managers has committed US$86.2 million of mezzanine debt from Climate Investor Two for the first two stages. Standard Bank, Nedbank and Absa are involved in the commercial financing.

The figures should not simply be added together. The NDB financing relates to Stage 1, Climate Investor Two covers the first two stages, and the roughly R25 billion programme value relates to all six stages.

Why it matters

Water is productive infrastructure for mining.

OMMP serves communities alongside industrial users across the northern and eastern limbs of the Bushveld Igneous Complex. Its commercial membership includes Valterra Platinum, ARM through Modikwa and Two Rivers, Northam’s Booysendal, Impala Platinum, Nkwe Platinum, Assore and Samancor.

The programme therefore has to reconcile public-service obligations with industrial demand.

Extractives Daily view

OMMP occupies an important financing middle ground.

The infrastructure is too large for one mine to finance efficiently, too commercially specific to behave like ordinary municipal water infrastructure, and too politically important to leave wholly private.

Its capital structure reflects those competing interests. Sovereign borrowing funds one layer. Commercial lenders fund another. Blended-finance mezzanine capital absorbs a different portion of risk. Industrial users participate because their operations ultimately depend on the water being delivered.

The capital stack exists because the asset has to satisfy all three constituencies at once.

That model matters beyond Limpopo. Similar problems emerge wherever multiple mines depend on shared power, water, road, rail or port systems whose economics cannot be allocated neatly to one operator.

Hamak sells Bitcoin to test whether Akoko can support a mine

Hamak Strategy has sold eight Bitcoin for £482,516 to fund work on its Akoko gold project in Ghana, repay part of its debt and provide working capital.

The sale needs to be read against the balance sheet. Hamak reported cash and cash equivalents of only US$26,000 at June 30, compared with US$3.11 million at the end of 2025.

Akoko has an independent NI 43-101 resource of 210,430 ounces at 0.76 g/t. Of that, 103,200 ounces are Measured and Indicated and 107,230 ounces are Inferred.

Approximately 124,000 ounces at 0.81 g/t occur within shallow oxide material in the upper 50 metres. Initial metallurgical work returned recoveries of 85% to 94%.

Snowden Optiro is preparing a Preliminary Economic Assessment, or PEA, around a potential open-pit, heap-leach operation.

A PEA is an early-stage study that asks whether a mineral resource could support an economic mine. It models potential mining, processing, capital costs, operating costs and production, but it is not a feasibility study and does not establish mineral reserves. A PEA can include Inferred resources, which carry greater geological uncertainty.

Why it matters

The Bitcoin sale is not mine financing.

It is funding the work required to establish whether there is a mine worth financing.

That distinction is particularly relevant when just over half of Akoko’s current resource remains Inferred.

The approximately 124,000 shallow oxide ounces are therefore important. If relatively simple open-pit mining and heap-leach processing work economically, they could support a lower-capital development route.

Extractives Daily view

Hamak is converting a liquid treasury asset into technical de-risking of an illiquid mineral asset.

It has also appointed Verdant as exclusive adviser and arranger for potential debt, prepayment, royalty, streaming, equity and equity-linked financing. Verdant separately subscribed £200,000 for Hamak shares, giving the adviser arranging the next financing layer its own equity exposure to the company.

No project financing has yet been agreed.

Akoko also remains subject to an acquisition option. Hamak can acquire 100% through consideration including US$1.9 million in cash to Topago Mining and £1 million in Hamak shares to CAA Mining, plus a production royalty. Hamak characterises the cash-and-shares acquisition cost at approximately US$15 per current resource ounce.

The PEA therefore has three jobs: establish whether the shallow oxide ounces support a viable development concept, show how resource confidence affects that case, and define the size of the financing requirement that follows.

The PEA is not the decision to build Akoko. It is the first serious economic test of whether Hamak should spend substantially more capital getting to that decision.

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

Mercuria / Exergy: The first project-specific financing disclosure showing how the US$250 million is allocated and what commercial rights accompany Mercuria’s capital.

Ethiopia / Djibouti / Dangote: Executed financing and project documents clarifying ownership, tariffs, throughput and the conflicting storage-capacity figures.

Olifants: Completion and drawdown of the remaining Stage 1 financing and evidence that construction remains on schedule for completion by the end of 2028.

Hamak: The Snowden Optiro PEA, particularly initial capex, operating costs, production rate, mine life and treatment of the Inferred portion of the resource.

LISTED EXPOSURE

This section identifies listed companies with exposure to the commodities and jurisdictions covered above, so that readers can compare how the same country or sector development may affect different operators. It covers named participants in today's stories first, then other listed companies active in the same jurisdiction on the same commodity.

Exposure varies enormously in both size and directness, and several of the most important operators in these jurisdictions are private or state-owned and therefore absent. Inclusion is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Zambia: copper and power

First Quantum Minerals | TSX: FM | Direct operating exposure
Kansanshi and Sentinel make First Quantum one of the largest listed users of Zambia’s electricity system. Additional dependable generation and transmission become increasingly relevant as Kansanshi S3 expands.

Barrick Mining | NYSE: B / TSX: ABX | Direct operating exposure
Lumwana’s expansion increases both Barrick’s Zambian copper exposure and its long-term requirement for dependable power.

ZCCM Investments Holdings | LuSE: ZCCM-IH | Indirect portfolio exposure
ZCCM-IH holds interests across Zambia’s mining system, making electricity reliability relevant to several underlying assets.

Jubilee Metals Group | AIM: JLP / JSE: JBL | Direct processing exposure
Jubilee’s Zambian copper-processing business depends on reliable electricity for utilisation, throughput and expansion.

Ethiopia and Djibouti: petroleum infrastructure

There is no clean listed direct exposure to the Damerjog-Dewele project. Dangote Group is privately held, and Dangote Cement should not be presented as an economic proxy simply because it shares controlling ownership.

South Africa: Bushveld water and mining

Valterra Platinum | JSE: VAL / LSE: VALT | Direct operating exposure
Valterra is a named OMMP commercial member with major PGM operations exposed to long-term Bushveld water availability.

African Rainbow Minerals | JSE: ARI | Direct operating exposure
ARM is represented through Modikwa and Two Rivers, placing two material PGM interests within the OMMP commercial-user structure.

Northam Platinum | JSE: NPH | Direct operating exposure
Northam’s Booysendal operation is a named OMMP commercial member whose long-term production depends partly on regional water infrastructure.

Impala Platinum Holdings | JSE: IMP | Direct operating exposure
Implats is another named programme participant with substantial mining and processing exposure to the Bushveld water system.

Zijin Mining | HKEX: 2899 / SSE: 601899 | Development exposure
Zijin owns Nkwe Platinum, which holds 74% of the Garatau PGM project. Nkwe is an OMMP commercial member, placing a Chinese-controlled development asset inside the public-private water structure.

Ghana: gold

Hamak Strategy | LSE: HAMA | Direct development exposure
Hamak holds the option over Akoko and is financing the PEA that will determine whether its shallow oxide resource supports a commercially credible development case.

Newmont | NYSE: NEM / ASX: NEM | Direct producing exposure
Ahafo South and Ahafo North provide large-scale Ghana gold exposure and a mature benchmark for operating and development economics. Newmont voluntarily delisted from the TSX in September 2025, so the former TSX: NGT reference no longer applies.

Gold Fields | JSE: GFI / NYSE: GFI | Direct producing and tenure exposure
Gold Fields’ Ghana position is concentrated at Tarkwa after Damang’s transfer to government. Five of Tarkwa’s six mining leases and its Development Agreement expire in April 2027. Gold Fields says there is no confirmed resolution timetable and that it is considering its rights under the agreements and at law.

Asante Gold | CSE: ASE / GSE: ASG / OTCQX: ASGOF | Direct mid-tier producing exposure
Bibiani and Chirano provide a closer comparator for the financing, recapitalisation and operating demands confronting smaller Ghanaian gold assets.

AngloGold Ashanti | NYSE: AU / JSE: ANG | Direct producing exposure
Obuasi demonstrates the long-cycle capital requirements associated with major underground redevelopment in Ghana.

Perseus Mining | ASX: PRU / TSX: PRU | Direct producing exposure
Edikan provides an established benchmark for mine-life economics, sustaining capital and capital allocation in Ghana.

Galiano Gold | TSX: GAU / NYSE American: GAU | Direct producing exposure
Asanko adds another relevant Ghana operating comparator for capital requirements, contractors and execution capability.

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