Orca Energy Group's Tanzanian subsidiary has rejected the commercial and fiscal terms proposed for extending the Songo Songo natural gas development licence. Tanzania's competition regulator has also prohibited the proposed sale of Orca's business, according to the company.

Songo Songo remains productive. PanAfrican Energy Tanzania, Orca's local operating subsidiary, sold an average 66.4 million cubic feet of gas per day in the second quarter. But its existing licence reaches its stated expiry date on 10 October, and PAET intends to stop operating by 29 November unless an earlier handover can be arranged.

The dispute exposes the distance between an asset's physical usefulness and its value to an investor. Gas production, legal tenure, ownership transfer and operational succession now depend on separate processes.

Ethiopia has approached value creation from the opposite direction. Ethiopian Investment Holdings, the state's investment company, and international refiner Sam Precious Metals have inaugurated a precious-metals refinery in Addis Ababa with capacity exceeding 600 tonnes annually.

Ethiopia produced 44.16 tonnes of gold in FY2025/26. Even if all domestic gold entered the refinery, it would occupy only about 7% of stated capacity. The project therefore depends on attracting regional feedstock to operate at anything approaching its designed scale.

Zimbabwe is using market access to accelerate processing investment. Lithium generated US$2.16 billion in export sales during the first nine months of 2026, mostly from spodumene concentrate. Yet concentrate exports are due to stop on 1 January 2027.

Sinomine Resource Group's Bikita Minerals is constructing a lithium sulphate plant, but management has moved its earlier March completion target to July. Meanwhile, London-listed Premier African Minerals is preparing another campaign at its Zulu lithium project to establish whether it can reliably produce the concentrate Zimbabwe intends to stop exporting.

Zambia is addressing another condition for investment: contracted demand. Renewable-energy developer AXIAN Energy has signed a power purchase agreement with regional electricity trader Africa GreenCo for the proposed 200MWac Kudu solar project. GreenCo will buy the electricity and market it across the Southern African Power Pool.

The agreement provides Kudu with an offtaker but does not complete its financing.

These developments concern different stages of investment. Tanzania has production but unsettled rights. Ethiopia has refining capacity ahead of sufficient domestic feedstock. Zimbabwe has a processing requirement ahead of some processing facilities. Zambia has a power contract ahead of financial close and construction.

Orca Energy Group, a Canadian-listed natural gas producer, said on 9 October that its Tanzanian subsidiary, PanAfrican Energy Tanzania Limited, had rejected proposed commercial and fiscal terms for extending the Songo Songo Development Licence.

The existing licence reaches its stated expiry date on 10 October.

According to Orca, a ministerial notice issued on 1 October starts a statutory process of up to 60 days during which rights and obligations under the existing licence and production-sharing agreement continue.

The underlying ministerial notice has not been independently reviewed. Its operative effect is therefore reported according to Orca's interpretation.

PAET has offered to continue operating during that period but intends to cease operations by 29 November, or earlier if the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation and Songas Limited confirm they are ready to assume responsibility.

TPDC is Tanzania's state petroleum company. Songas owns key gas-processing and transportation infrastructure associated with Songo Songo.

The proposed transition concerns an operating asset. PAET sold an average 66.4 million cubic feet of gas daily in Q2 2026, with approximately 67% going to power-sector customers.

Orca's proposed sale faces three obstacles

In April, Orca agreed to sell its Tanzanian holding company to Amber Energy Investment, which would acquire 51%, and Tanzanian energy company Taifa Gas, which would take 49%.

The nominal share consideration is US$10.

That amount is not an independent valuation of the field or its infrastructure. The proposed exit reflects Orca's assessment of the business's remaining contractual rights, obligations and liabilities.

The transaction has encountered three obstacles.

First, the sale agreement permits any party to terminate at any time and for any reason.

Second, its extended 31 August longstop date passed without completion.

Third, Tanzania's Fair Competition Commission issued a notice prohibiting the acquisition on 5 October, according to Orca. The company says the notice did not provide reasons.

The agreement has not been terminated, but the merger prohibition creates a further obstacle to completion.

Tanzania's Fair Competition Act provides for appeals against Commission decisions to the Fair Competition Tribunal within 28 days of notification or publication. If the prohibition was notified on 5 October, the indicative appeal deadline would fall around 2 November. The actual notification date requires confirmation.

Licence continuation, merger approval and operational succession are legally separate questions.

A temporary continuation of existing rights does not make the acquisition executable. A successful ownership transfer would not itself establish commercially acceptable licence terms.

The timing also coincides with developments elsewhere in Tanzania's gas sector. Aminex's Ntorya gas project, in the southern Ruvuma Basin, is targeting first gas in December.

New supply would not replace the need for an orderly transition at Songo Songo.

Songo Songo illustrates how physical utility can become separated from investor value.

The field continues to supply gas needed by Tanzanian consumers. Orca's residual economic interest depends on whether it can secure acceptable rights or transfer the business and its associated obligations.

The proposed US$10 consideration reflects that problem.

The next substantive evidence should be an executed operating-transition agreement identifying the responsible operator, effective date, gas-supply arrangements and allocation of outstanding liabilities.

Until then, 29 November remains an intended operating exit rather than a completed handover.

Sources: Orca Energy Group, 9 October 2026: Songo Songo licence and transaction update | Orca: transaction longstop and termination rights | Tanzania Fair Competition Act | Aminex: Ntorya development programme

Ethiopia inaugurated its National Precious Metals Refinery at the Bole Lemi Special Economic Zone in Addis Ababa on 10 October.

The facility was established by Ethiopian Investment Holdings, the state investment company, in partnership with Sam Precious Metals, an international precious-metals refiner.

Its stated capacity exceeds 600 tonnes annually, covering precious metals including gold and silver.

Ethiopia reported 44.16 tonnes of gold production in FY2025/26.

The refinery's capacity is approximately 13.6 times that figure. Even if all Ethiopian gold production entered the plant, it would occupy only about 7.4% of capacity.

This is an indicative comparison between national gold production and a facility designed to process multiple precious metals, not a utilisation forecast.

The refinery's commercial proposition extends beyond domestic beneficiation.

Meaningful utilisation at its stated scale will require Ethiopia to compete for precious-metal feedstock from other countries.

That depends on refining charges, recognised assay standards, working capital, traceability, customs arrangements and efficient routes for receiving and returning metal.

Domestic production growth could help, but large new mines are not guaranteed. KEFI Gold and Copper's Tulu Kapi project, a prospective Ethiopian gold producer, suspended development following a fatal security incident on 4 September.

Installed capacity does not establish a functioning regional refining market.

Ethiopia has created infrastructure that could support one. Its commercial significance will emerge from actual throughput, feedstock sourcing and utilisation.

A refinery processing mostly domestic production would operate substantially below stated capacity.

A facility attracting consistent metal from neighbouring jurisdictions would represent a different development: Ethiopia becoming a regional service provider to the precious-metals industry.

Sources: Ethiopian News Agency: National Precious Metals Refinery inauguration | The Reporter: Ethiopia's FY2025/26 gold production | KEFI Gold and Copper: interim results and Tulu Kapi suspension

Zimbabwe is maintaining its 1 January 2027 deadline for ending lithium concentrate exports, even as several producers remain short of domestic lithium sulphate processing capacity.

Lithium generated US$2.16 billion in export sales during the nine months to September.

Spodumene concentrate accounted for US$1.8 billion, approximately 83% of the total.

Sinomine Resource Group's Bikita Minerals is constructing a lithium sulphate plant in Zimbabwe.

Sinomine's August announcement described a 100,000-tonne-per-year project scheduled for commissioning in mid-2027.

Bikita management subsequently explained that it had been working towards an earlier March 2027 completion target, but equipment shipping and other delays had moved that expectation to July.

July represents a delay against management's March target while remaining broadly consistent with Sinomine's published mid-2027 window.

The investment figures refer to differently described project scopes. Earlier reporting, citing Sinomine executives, said approximately US$500 million had been secured for a two-phase lithium sulphate programme targeting 125,000 tonnes annually by 2028.

Bikita management now describes a US$400 million plant with capacity of 100,000 tonnes annually.

The different capacities suggest that the estimates may cover different phases or project boundaries. The available disclosures do not establish a directly comparable capital-cost figure.

Sinomine has separately invested more than US$300 million in existing Bikita operations since acquiring the mine in 2022.

Premier African Minerals, an AIM-listed mining developer, is preparing a 15-day processing campaign at its Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe.

The company plans to use approximately 13,000 tonnes of stockpiled ore to test plant stability, throughput, recovery and spodumene-concentrate quality.

Zulu does not have operating lithium sulphate capacity.

Zimbabwe's policy divides producers according to their ability to process concentrate domestically.

Huayou's Arcadia operation already has lithium sulphate capacity. Bikita and Sichuan Yahua's Kamativi operation are constructing downstream facilities. Chengxin's Sabi Star remains a concentrate producer while pursuing further processing investment.

Arcadia's operator has said its plant cannot process third-party concentrate, limiting other producers' ability to rely on that facility.

Premier faces a particularly direct contradiction.

Zulu is attempting to demonstrate dependable concentrate production shortly before Zimbabwe intends to prohibit concentrate exports.

For larger Chinese-owned producers, the immediate test is whether processing investment and regulatory deadlines can be reconciled.

The next government decision should establish whether projects with committed downstream investment receive transitional treatment and what options remain for producers without such facilities.

Sources: Bikita Minerals: March-to-July timetable and US$400 million estimate | Sinomine: mid-2027 commissioning schedule | Sinomine investment programme: US$500 million and two-phase capacity | Bikita's two-phase investment and production plan | Premier African Minerals: Zulu operational update | Reuters: Zimbabwe's processing-capacity gap

AXIAN Energy and Africa GreenCo have signed a power purchase agreement for the proposed Kudu solar project in Zambia.

AXIAN is a pan-African renewable-energy developer. GreenCo is a Zambia-based electricity trader and intermediary buyer operating across the Southern African Power Pool.

The agreement was signed at the Energy Forum for Africa in Lusaka.

Kudu is planned with 200MWac of generating capacity, equivalent to 240MWdc, and expected annual production of approximately 530GWh.

That implies a capacity factor of about 30% against its AC rating.

GreenCo intends to purchase the electricity and resell it to utilities, mines, agricultural operations and other commercial customers across the regional power market.

Standard Bank Group and Stanbic Bank Zambia are supporting the project as it moves towards financing and construction.

Neither financial close nor commencement of construction has been announced.

Zambia's Maamba Solar project has begun commissioning, with first electricity injected into the national grid on 24 September.

The 100MW project cost approximately US$90 million and was developed by a venture owned 65% by Nava Global and 35% by ZCCM Investments Holdings.

Maamba has a 20-year power purchase agreement with Zambia's state electricity utility, ZESCO.

Kudu instead contracts with GreenCo, which intends to distribute power across a wider customer portfolio.

GreenCo's structure can reduce a project's dependence on one national utility.

It does not eliminate credit risk.

The immediate contractual obligation moves to GreenCo, making its capitalisation, liquidity arrangements, guarantee support and exposure to resale customers relevant to lenders.

Those Kudu-specific protections have not been disclosed.

Kudu is the third regional electricity-market development covered by Extractives Daily in the past fortnight.

Exergy, which signed a US$250 million financing agreement with Mercuria for generation and transmission projects, also owns power trader Kanona. The financing remains subject to regulatory approvals.

The proposed Kalumbila-Kolwezi Interconnector has 700MW of technical transmission capacity, with contemplated initial electricity imports into the DRC of up to 550MW.

GreenCo is now contracting new Zambian generation against regional demand.

Together, these developments show regional electricity trading becoming part of the financing structures behind new power infrastructure.

Kudu's next test is financial close: committed debt and equity, demonstrated offtaker credit support and authority to commence construction.

Sources: Africa GreenCo: Kudu PPA announcement | Renewables Now: Kudu capacity and regional offtake | ZCCM-IH: Maamba Solar commissioning | Mercuria: Exergy financing agreement | Trafigura: Kalumbila-Kolwezi Interconnector

This section identifies listed companies with exposure to the commodities and jurisdictions covered above, so that readers can compare how the same country or sector development may affect different operators. It covers named participants in today's stories first, then other listed companies active in the same jurisdiction on the same commodity.

Orca Energy Group | TSXV: ORC.A | TSXV: ORC.B

Direct operating and contractual exposure. Operates Songo Songo through PAET. Watch the licence process, merger prohibition and operating transition.

Aminex | LSE: AEX

Direct development exposure. Holds 25% of the Ruvuma production-sharing agreement containing Ntorya. Watch its targeted December first-gas milestone alongside Songo Songo's proposed operating transition.

Maurel & Prom | Euronext Paris: MAU

Direct producing exposure. Holds a 60% interest in Tanzania's Mnazi Bay gas licence. Watch domestic gas demand and contractual developments affecting the sector.

KEFI Gold and Copper | AIM: KEFI

Suspended development exposure. Development at Tulu Kapi remains suspended following the fatal 4 September security incident. Further financing drawdown depends on lenders being satisfied with local and regional security conditions.

Premier African Minerals | AIM: PREM

Direct concentrate exposure. Zulu's planned 15-day campaign aims to demonstrate reliable spodumene-concentrate production ahead of the January export restriction.

Sinomine Resource Group | SZSE: 002738

Direct producing and processing exposure. Owns Bikita. Watch the 100,000-tonne-per-year sulphate project's July 2027 commissioning target and any regulatory accommodation.

Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt | SSE: 603799

Direct processing exposure. Owns Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe, operator of existing commercial lithium sulphate capacity at Arcadia.

Chengxin Lithium Group | SZSE: 002240

Direct producing and prospective processing exposure. Controls Sabi Star and has committed capital to further domestic processing. Watch the timing of compliant capacity.

Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group | SZSE: 002497

Direct producing and processing exposure. Operates Kamativi and is constructing downstream lithium sulphate capacity.

Copperbelt Energy Corporation | LuSE: CEC

Listed power-market comparator. Transmits, distributes and trades electricity in Zambia and regionally, providing the closest listed analogue to GreenCo's intermediary role.

Standard Bank Group | JSE: SBK

Prospective financing exposure. Standard Bank and Stanbic Bank Zambia are supporting Kudu towards financial close. No completed Kudu financing has been established.

Nava Limited | NSE India: NAVA | BSE: 513023

Operating-project comparator. Holds an indirect 65% interest in Maamba Solar, which began commissioning in September under a long-term ZESCO PPA.

ZCCM Investments Holdings | LuSE: ZCCM-IH | LSE: ZCC | Euronext Access Paris: MLZAM

Operating-project comparator. Holds 35% of Maamba Solar. Its single-utility offtake structure provides a comparison with GreenCo's regional intermediary model.